Can Russia Use the Paris Attacks to its Advantage?
- By defencematters
The current political situation in Europe is extremely fragile. On the one hand, there is Russia pursuing its divide and rule policy in the EU. On the other hand, there is ISIS playing its anti-western games as well.
by Bartosz Marcinkowski
After the recent deadly terrorist attacks in Paris, European countries are starting to once again take their security seriously. For some countries, it was a wake-up call that was perhaps louder than even the war in Ukraine. French President François Hollande stated on Monday that France is committed to “destroying” the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. For France, it is a raison d'être to respond properly to the attacks. For Hollande, it is a chance to regain some of his lost support and protect France against another potential threat – the rule of the National Front, a far-right political movement with unclear links to Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia.
France will intensify its military campaign against ISIS and called on the EU for a meeting to discuss an increase in cross-border security. British Prime Minister David Cameron declared Britain would hire more spies “to combat those who would destroy us and our values.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel does not enjoy the same high support as a result of her “welcoming” policy towards refugees from the Middle East even in her own party. After the Paris attacks, doubts raised until recently only by some Central and Eastern European leaders seem to be gaining more attention in the EU’s mainstream policies. Whether it is related to terrorism or not, the attacks in Paris will undoubtedly impact the EU’s refugee policy.
The current political situation in Europe is extremely fragile. On the one hand, there is Russia pursuing its divide and rule policy in the EU. On the other hand, there is ISIS playing its anti-western games as well. It is very difficult not to notice that the long-term goals of both Russia and ISIS in Europe are extraordinarily similar. For Russia, the ISIS attacks in Paris are like a gift, mostly for following reasons:
- They may boost support for far-right, anti-immigrant parties – which happen to be strongly pro-Russian at the same time – across the EU,
- They may help – in the case of Hollande’s indolence – Nicolas Sarkozy or Marine le Pen (both scenarios would be more comfortable for Russia) to become France’s next president,
- They may further divide Europe over the refugee issue and alienate Central and Eastern EU member states,
- They may be used to blame the United States and NATO for a disastrous policy in the Middle East,
- They may strengthen Putin’s position in negotiations with the West on sanctions and help to present him as an integral part of a fight against ISIS,
- The attack itself destabilises France, one of the most significant EU member states and global player.
Some of above-mentioned actions are happening already. Let me use the example from Poland of how the recent tragic events can be manipulated in accordance with Russian propaganda. More than 8,000 people declared on Facebook their attendance in an anti-terrorism rally in Kraków scheduled for November 18th. It is not to blame people who declared participation in such event – it is somehow natural to protest against such heinous acts of terror. However, the description of the manifestation makes its real purposes clear: it puts refugees on an equal footing with terrorists and openly blames NATO and ‘its criminal policy’ for this year’s influx of immigrants to Europe. To put it simply: terrorists=refugees=NATO.
Of course, it is a totally false perception. NATO or, more broadly, the West cannot be blamed for the attacks in Paris as it cannot be blamed for the annexation of Crimea. Pavel Svyatenkov, a Russian political scientist, commented recently in Izvestia on the attacks in the following way: “France is paying for its active participation in the destabilisation of the Middle East, and also for its overly welcoming policy on migration.” Similar types of argumentation were also gaining momentum amid the hottest days of the war in Ukraine. It is enough to recall John J. Mearsheimer’s article in Foreign Affairs titled “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault”.
The West’s policy in the Middle East was not perfect, of course. But to interpret the deadly attack in Paris as France’s fault is a dangerous manipulation. It is clearly not the fault of the West. It is simply a part of ISIS’s policy aimed at destabilising western, democratic states and political structures. This aim is to some extent shared also by Putin’s Russia – and that should not be forgotten.
After the attacks in Paris, it will be more difficult to handle the refugee crisis in the EU. Neither a “refugees welcome” nor a “no to immigrants” approach can be successful. Fences, border controls, increase of defence expenditures and more intense military engagement against ISIS may soon become part of the EU’s mainstream policy as necessary measures to counter potential threats.
In such circumstances it is easy to make mistakes. One of them would be to re-establish friendly relations with Russia and form an “anti-terrorism” coalition together. It would be another senseless reset as the war in Ukraine clearly demonstrated how large the gap is between the West and Russia in terms of strategic goals and interests. What’s more, Russia does not have the same enemies in Syria as the West; nor does it have the same friends. Hollande and other leaders who consider such an alliance as a good political solution need to keep that in mind.
Bartosz Marcinkowski is is an assistant editor with New Eastern Europe. This article was first published in New Eastern Europe
