Emerging threats: Should Slovakia be “afraid”?
- By defencematters
Slovak security analysts explain whether Slovakia should be “afraid” of emerging threats.
Andrej Matisak
The term "emerging threats" has been used widely to describe emerging security challenges to have emerged since the end of the Cold War.
Slovak security analysts talk to Defence Matters about what they think emerging threats are and whether Slovakia should be "afraid".
Robert Ondrejcsak, Director, Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs
Emerging threats is a general term applied for the threats that have emerged since the end of the Cold War and that differ from traditional military threats, which dominated during the strategic rivalry between the West and the East. This group is quite broad and is constantly changing, or rather relevancy and scale of individual threats is changing, including, especially in the aftermath of 9/11, terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, failed states, and their mutual combination. These threats are still very relevant, even for the security of Slovakia; just look at the broader Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel region. Paradoxically, in recent years the most important emerging threat for Slovakia and for our entire region again became the traditional military, security and political threat. In particular, it is Russian expansionism, military operations and a presence in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as well as the will and the ability to deploy relatively strong military capabilities in Eastern Europe and toward the West. So in our case, there are currently two very important strategic threats: first, directly at our borders it is a traditional military-political threat represented by Russian revanchism and expansionism, secondly, on the periphery of Europe it is a combination of failed countries (Iraq, Syria, countries in the Sahel areas) and terrorist organizations (such as ISIS).
Marian Majer, Head of the Security and Defence Policy Programme, Central European Policy Institute
What I consider growing threats are not just the “emerging threats”. These threats have already been present in our security environment for some time, which is long enough for the threats to be considered only arising or growing. The fact that we still do not perceive their significance or potential of their negative impact is mainly because this effect has not become evident in full force. So unlike traditional military threats, we have not yet witnessed large-scale incidents that would “re-classify” these threats from emerging to traditional. However, this is only a matter of time and the impact will depend on the adopted measures. What threats are we talking about? Simply said, from my viewpoint they are all threats that are not primarily caused or accompanied by military force. Military actions may be their part in some circumstances but only as accompanying process of other activities. They may include cyberthreats and threats of the disruption of the information environment, threats of abuse of energy networks, and the energy security or food security threats. However, in my opinion they also include threats of abusing information and propaganda tools designed to undermine the political systems of democratic states. And I am afraid that given the dynamics of security development the list of threats of this kind is unfortunately open for future additions.
Dusan Fischer, Head of the International Security Program, Slovak Foreign Policy Association-SFPA
When I hear the words Slovakia and “emerging threats”, I think particularly of threats that already exist but have recently worsened. These threats can be divided to external and internal. The external threats include mainly any form of conventional or unconventional conflict, which would directly or indirectly involve Slovakia. The threat of conventional conflict today is not negligible, but unconventional conflict is more possible. Whether it would be an act of terrorism in Slovakia, a cyberattack on one of its key political or economic institutions, and last but not least an attack by a terrorist group operating in Europe and in other regions. Slovakia as a member of NATO and the EU could be a potential target of a terrorist group. The second group of emerging threats is much more fundamental and more significant for the functioning of the country in the future. It is the apathy of the population, combined with anti-system sentiment in relation to the negative attitude towards the EU and NATO. Questioning the most important alliances of which Slovakia is a member may seriously jeopardize the stability of the region. This is an area where the government, in cooperation with NGOs, should play an important role, informing citizens of Slovakia's commitment towards international organizations and other countries. It should be a long-term interest of the sovereign power in Slovakia to open these issues and properly inform the public to prevent an uncontrolled collapse.
Jaroslav Usiak, Lecturer, Department of Security Studies, Matej Bel University in Banská Bystrica
Primarily, it is necessary to note that Slovakia's position is now anchored in the broader transatlantic area, which requires involvement in addressing broader not just regional problems, which, in turn, generates potential security threats for the country. A number of tendencies create wide and multiple options. In terms of current trends coming from outside it is a destabilization of the Schengen border, which results from illegal and partly legal migration from regions affected by the conflict. This is a direct threat to the EU and thus also to Slovakia as one of the Member States. Failed protection of the southern and potentially eastern Schengen borders may result in an increase in transit of illegal drugs, weapons and people, which if not addressed can have a multiplicative effect and result in an increase in unemployment, social conflicts and poverty in Slovakia. These effects can generate, and to some extent they have already raised, the issue of the cohesion of the EU and its members, opening the possibility of a collapse of European integration and associated problems. Of course, we should not forget the fundamental trends arising from the internal environment, namely economic – a significant number of people living in poverty, ecological – gradual loss of permanent level of groundwater, i.e. the gradual drying of the Slovak Republic. Last but not least is a serious tendency of the polarization of society which is greatly increased with the conflict in Ukraine and refugee crisis.
